The Cherry Blossom - D1A/VET ROC

Div I-A Women's Foil

Sunday, March 30, 2025 at 2:00 PM

University of Maryland, Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Shuang	-	-	1%	6%	33%	60%
2	MEI Sarah	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	RENTON Samantha	-	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
3	LI Katerina	-	-	5%	23%	43%	27%	2%
5	HOOSHI Erica S.	-	-	-	-	12%	87%
5	SHMUKLER Maria	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	12%
7	HAFEZ Tahiyah	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
8	OWENS Elise	-	4%	24%	41%	25%	6%	-
9	LIU Long	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
10	SHICK Veronika	2%	17%	43%	30%	8%	1%
11	DONG Emily	1%	6%	25%	41%	25%	3%
12	CAO Kayla	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-
13	LEE Alice	-	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%	-
14	PHAN Logan	42%	44%	13%	2%	-	-	-
15	OWEN Ashley	-	-	5%	24%	42%	26%	2%
16	FELLMAN Sara	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	3%
17	SHERLOCK Gabriella	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
18	BASSIK Judith M.	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
19	MADDOX Lacey E.	-	-	6%	35%	54%	5%
20	LAM Victoria M.	-	4%	29%	50%	17%	-
21	WATERS Samantha M.	2%	15%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
22	TAYLOR-OSBORN Nadia	5%	34%	40%	18%	3%	-	-
23	MCGRATH Polina S.	-	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
24	SULLIVAN Redmond	6%	62%	28%	4%	-	-
25	PONCET Sarah	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
26	GANDLURI Sreehitha	-	11%	50%	33%	5%	-
27	WESTGATE Rebecca	19%	49%	27%	5%	-	-
28	KATS Ekaterina	1%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%	-
29	GORDON Rachel A.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
30	BARCZAK Rebekah	18%	42%	30%	9%	1%	-
31	MOORE Addisyn	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
32	ABD-ELMONIEM Nusayba K.	< 1%	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	9%
33	MARKERT Delaney	49%	41%	10%	1%	-	-
34	WU Lorena	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-
35	ZHANG Tingyun (Linda)	21%	48%	26%	5%	-	-	-
36	FERGUSON Diane F.	< 1%	2%	17%	41%	33%	8%
37	JAIN Dia	88%	11%	-	-	-	-
38	MARRELLI Carolina	71%	26%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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