The Colonel Melee

Div III Men's Épée

Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Ledyard High School - Ledyard, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 BUCHAS James 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 58%
2 WATERMAN Colton 100% 85% 38% 7% - -
3 BRASSARD Calvin 100% 100% 99% 92% 67% 25%
4 PEZZINO Matthew 100% 87% 43% 7% < 1% -
5 HILLEGEIST Ash 100% 99% 87% 55% 19% 3%
6 WHITE Aidan 100% 100% 94% 66% 26% 4%
7 DINSMORE Elliot 100% 94% 66% 28% 6% -
8 HARRIS Noah 100% 98% 81% 32% 5% -
9 LEVESQUE Maxwell J. 100% 84% 43% 10% 1% -
10 PAGE Duncan 100% 100% 98% 86% 54% 16%
11 CROTTY James 100% 99% 90% 62% 26% 4%
12 SIMONDS Benjamin 100% 100% 97% 78% 38% 6%
13 BOISLARD Jacob R. 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 3%
14 WESTON AARON 100% 100% 99% 90% 58% 17%
15 CUFF Joe 100% 59% 18% 3% - -
16 PEARSALL Riley C. 100% 100% 100% 94% 65% 14%
17 SHUMAN Lily 100% 93% 63% 24% 4% -
18 ENGLAND Aiden 100% 59% 17% 2% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.