The Colonel Melee

Div III Men's Foil

Sunday, April 13, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Ledyard High School - Ledyard, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 QUAN Noah 100% 87% 50% 15% 2% -
2 TIBBETTS Justin 100% 100% 99% 94% 70% 27%
3 REARDON Patrick M. 100% 100% 96% 78% 40% 8%
4 HARRIS Noah 100% 100% 98% 84% 49% 12%
5 DAO-CRESPO Joaquin 100% 98% 86% 53% 17% 2%
6 COFFIN Carleton 100% 100% 99% 89% 58% 18%
7 ASKEW Yuki 100% 95% 68% 24% 3% -
8 BRAWN Gavin 100% 78% 37% 9% 1% -
9 BUCHAS James 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 35%
10 JENNINGS Aden 100% 100% 93% 61% 22% 3%
11 ARSHAD Mohsin 100% 98% 62% 20% 3% -
12 UNDAG Anthony 100% 100% 92% 64% 25% 4%
13 JEFF Ariff 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 19%
14 HOWARD Mekai 100% 26% 3% - - -
15 HECK John 100% 100% 94% 70% 32% 6%
15 LEWIS Lochlan 100% 88% 53% 17% 2% -
17 DEXTER Zebulon 100% 88% 55% 20% 4% -
18 CRUZ Cameron 100% 90% 57% 20% 3% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.