6th Annual Precision RYC and RJC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEE Abin	-	-	-	7%	39%	53%
2	ONG Nicholas	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
3	PE Noah	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
3	LI Daniel	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
5	ZHOU Shawn	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
6	TSUI Raedyn Ho Hin	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
7	LEE Christopher	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
8	GUO Austin	1%	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
9	FOY Grant	-	-	1%	6%	30%	45%	19%
10	LI Lucas	-	-	1%	5%	20%	41%	34%
11	YE Jerry	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	4%
12	LO Ernest	-	-	5%	27%	49%	18%
13	GUDIMETLA Siddhanth	-	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	9%
14	HONG Edwin	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	16%
15	HUANG Nathan	-	6%	25%	41%	24%	4%
16	WANG Waylon	-	3%	14%	32%	33%	16%	2%
17	YEE Colin	-	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
18	YUNG Brandon	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%	-
19	CHEN Jason	1%	8%	25%	35%	23%	7%	1%
20	ZHANG Jason	-	3%	15%	31%	33%	15%	2%
20	LI Austin	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
22	KARPMAN Benny	3%	21%	41%	27%	7%	1%
23	LIU Landon	5%	28%	43%	21%	3%	-
24	SUN Roy	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
25	TEJAKUSUMA Eric	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
26	SHADRAVAN Arash	11%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-	-
27	PARK Kaiden	8%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%
28	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	5%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
29	CHEN kenneth	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
30	LOPES-EASON Liam James	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%	1%	-
31	LIU Aiden	21%	41%	28%	9%	2%	-	-
32	WARD MADS	5%	25%	40%	24%	5%	-	-
33	LEE Joshua	1%	7%	30%	44%	17%	2%
34	CHEUNG Henry	16%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
35	TRAN Matthew	2%	13%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
36	KWONG Colin	15%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-
37	FALCONE Mateo	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
38	LEE Colin	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
39	MA Justin	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
40	TRAN Andrew	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	20%	1%
41	JUE Lucas	17%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
42	NGUYEN Nolan	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
43	LITVACK Jackson	12%	43%	35%	9%	1%	-
44	SHA Lambor（Laien)	24%	41%	26%	8%	1%	-
45	HO Cameron	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
46	LEE Ian	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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