6th Annual Precision RYC and RJC

Y-10 Women's Saber

Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 11:00 AM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FAN Tina	-	-	1%	10%	39%	51%
2	SHI Maxine	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
3	LIANG Madelyn	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
3	GUERVILLE Angelique	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	14%
5	LIU Isabel	-	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	29%
6	WANG April	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
6	CHANG Kora	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	10%
8	CHAN Clara Minna	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%	2%
9	LUC Christabel	-	2%	13%	34%	40%	11%
10	KIM Addison	-	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	2%
11	CHENG Anna	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
12	HAN yujie	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
13	TRAN Esme	1%	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%
14	CHANG Jillian	7%	25%	37%	24%	7%	-
15	ZHOU kelsey	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
16	ZHAO Audrey	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
17	CERVERA Zoe	5%	26%	40%	24%	6%	-
18	BAKHCHINYAN Anoush	26%	43%	25%	6%	-	-
19	YANG Callie	5%	22%	36%	28%	9%	1%
20	SCHOELLHAMMER Julia	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	16%	3%
21	QIU Isla Qiu	13%	36%	35%	14%	3%	-	-
22	FISCHER Luna	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
23	LIU Kaylee	4%	19%	36%	30%	11%	1%
24	CHEN Emma	15%	41%	33%	10%	1%	-
24	BIGLOU Shimane	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
26	FANG Kaitlyn	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
27	ZHANG Madeline	14%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
28	CORD Serena	12%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
29	HOU Charlotte	7%	31%	39%	19%	4%	-
30	LIU Anya	4%	21%	38%	29%	8%	1%
31	ZHOU Charlotte	7%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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