6th Annual Precision RYC and RJC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Sunday, April 20, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WU Jessica	-	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
2	CHEN JUNYU	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
3	BURKS Madison	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	22%
3	ROBLES Claudia	-	2%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%
5	WANG Nicole	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
6	LI Carlie	-	1%	9%	28%	39%	19%	3%
7	LEE Adelynn	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
8	KANE Chloe	-	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	10%
9	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
10	CIOBANU Celine	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	28%
11	KOU Cynthia	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	18%
12	LIAO irene	-	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
13	CHEN Julia Z.	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	19%	2%
14	LEONG Andrea	10%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
14	ARNOLD Evangeline	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
16	UEMURA Lyllia	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
17	GARCIA Sophia Noelle	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
18	PAK Ella	12%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
19	WANG Lihong	-	-	1%	5%	24%	45%	26%
20	RAPTIS Layla	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
21	LU Chloe	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	-
22	YIP Allison	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
23	AGARWAL Keya	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
24	SUN Joanna	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
25	MIAO Anthea	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
26	YOON Claire	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
27	ZHAO Yanning	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	11%	1%
28	DEKERMANJI kate	2%	15%	35%	33%	12%	2%	-
29	ERISMAN Gabriella	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
30	LICHTENFELD Naomi	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%
31	KELLER Mia	13%	34%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
32	LI Wan-Tao	18%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
33	VOO Evelyn	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
34	GRAZIANO Josephine	28%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	LI Chloe	4%	20%	37%	28%	10%	1%
36	KOHLER Chrissy	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-	-
37	ZU Jacqueline	5%	26%	40%	22%	5%	1%	-
38	BEATINGO Chelli	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-	-
39	KLEIN Isabel	26%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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