NYFA Youth Cup #6

Y-14 Mixed Épée

Sunday, April 27, 2025 at 4:30 PM

NYFA Brooklyn - Brooklyn, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MIDYANY Evan	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki	-	-	2%	16%	46%	36%
3	SHCHUR Grayson	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	21%
3	DODIN Daniel M.	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
5	WU Michelle	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	15%
6	KATS Brandon	-	2%	12%	35%	39%	14%
7	YAKHNIS Seth	-	-	13%	43%	38%	5%
8	MOKRETSOV Leah	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
9	BLUMEN Benjamin	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
10	MIDYANY Ryan	-	-	5%	24%	44%	27%
11	NOOL Alexander	-	3%	16%	38%	35%	8%
12	CHIANG William	-	6%	26%	43%	23%	2%
13	CHO Adrian	4%	24%	42%	24%	5%	-
14	NOOL Aaron	4%	23%	41%	25%	6%	1%
15	SHEYDIN Barry	6%	31%	38%	19%	5%	-	-
16	JEPP Michael	6%	28%	40%	21%	4%	-
17	WU Matthew	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
18	TANG Colin	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	2%
19	CHEN Jayden	11%	41%	36%	11%	1%	-
20	DUDKA Ivan	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
21	LAI Jayden	1%	10%	42%	37%	10%	-
22	FRIZZELL Kai	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
23	MASKIN Mikhail	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
24	KHAHAM Samuel	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
25	PAREKH Riana	26%	50%	21%	3%	-	-
26	GOTSABINA Elizabeth	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
27	CHEN Madeline	< 1%	5%	27%	45%	21%	2%
28	NOONAN Jane	48%	44%	8%	-	-	-
29	LI Tyrese	12%	55%	28%	5%	-	-
30	HWANG Hailey	4%	27%	40%	23%	6%	1%	-
31	CHI Evelyn	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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