NEUSFA D and Under

Div III Men's Épée

Sunday, May 18, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Worcester Fencing Club - Worcester, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	STEVENSON Ryan	-	-	2%	15%	41%	41%
2	MORI Seneca	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
3	BAZZANA Beniamino	1%	8%	28%	41%	19%	3%
3	BRASSARD Calvin	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	30%
5	ASHLEY Logan	9%	34%	38%	17%	3%
6	MICKEY Christopher J.	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	16%
7	URBANOWICZ Mathias	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
8	CHAVES Evan	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
9	STEIN Philip	-	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%
10	GU Eric	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%
11	PAGE Duncan	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
12	GREEN Logan	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	14%
13	PANAS Mason	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
14	FOGEL Jake	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
15	MASSE Dean	41%	41%	15%	2%	-
16	SPRINGER Elijah	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
17	BOISLARD Jacob R.	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
18	LECUYER-SCHOONMAKER Declan	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
19	HOLBROOK Joshua	7%	36%	38%	16%	3%	-
20	WHITE Aidan	2%	14%	37%	36%	12%
21	CROTTY James	2%	14%	36%	36%	13%
22	HAN Nathan	15%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
23	ZHANG Eric I.	-	4%	32%	46%	16%	2%
24	ERIKSEN Casey	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%
25	BENNETT Nathan	33%	42%	20%	4%	-
26	FAUCHER James	21%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
27	BUMPUS Isaias	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
28	LONADIER Robert	55%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
29	CUFF Joe	9%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%
30	SONPAL Winslow	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
31	VILLARS Philip	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
32	REINEKE Gerhard	8%	33%	38%	17%	3%
33	LU Eric	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
34	BENNETT Paul	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.