Fight for Life Épée Open (F.A.O.P. North)

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, June 8, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Fencing Academy of Philadelphia-North - Wyncote, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHAWLA Armaan	-	-	-	2%	23%	74%
2	HEARNE Gavin	-	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
3	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	-	-	-	6%	45%	49%
3	GAO Victor	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
5	LENNON Nicholas	-	4%	22%	41%	27%	6%
6	LAWLOR Lee	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%
7	YAKIMENKO Andrei	-	-	-	1%	20%	79%
8	NG Nico	3%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
9	ALABI Azryl	1%	9%	31%	41%	18%	1%
10	ZHANG Jason	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
11	ZHAI Junqi	-	6%	27%	45%	21%	1%
12	O'DOWD Andrew J.	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
13	CUMMINGS Owen	-	2%	18%	42%	33%	5%
14	CRESPO Nathaniel Justus	-	1%	12%	38%	40%	7%	-
15	KAPLAN Maddox	1%	10%	33%	40%	15%	1%	-
16	CHAWLA Aarav	1%	7%	28%	41%	21%	2%
17	COTLAR Andrew D.	-	6%	33%	45%	15%	1%
18	JHUNJHUNWALA Milan	-	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%
19	BEN-YAACOV Shai D.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	24%
20	YU Kenneth	27%	43%	24%	5%	-	-
21	GOVOROV Alexander	-	3%	19%	44%	32%	2%
22	STRAND Alexander I.	3%	20%	39%	29%	8%	-
23	SPECTER Luka	13%	42%	34%	10%	1%	-
24	DUPIRE Frank	7%	29%	39%	20%	4%	-
25	WILKENS Lorelei	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
26	LEVESQUE Gabriel	9%	29%	36%	21%	5%	-
27	CHI Evelyn	27%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
28	WARD Evan	-	5%	22%	40%	27%	5%
29	SCHLEE Selma	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-	-
30	DUCK Raphael	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	3%	-
31	CAMPBELL Gregory	1%	10%	34%	40%	13%	1%
32	BISHOP Avery	23%	48%	25%	4%	-	-
33	RUSEN Gary V.	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
34	CONCEPCION Wil	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
35	ROLLET Tim	-	9%	33%	41%	15%	2%
36	NEPOMUCENO Elijah	17%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
37	FRUMKIN Charlotte	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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