National Championships and July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Vet-60 Men's Foil

Saturday, June 28, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Baird Center - Milwaukee, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BALESTRACCI CHRIS	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	21%
2	OLIVARES Fretz G.	-	-	-	7%	36%	57%
3	LEBLANC Gerald (Jerry) A.	-	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
3	LAWRENCE John W.	-	-	-	3%	44%	53%
5	KAIHATSU Edward J.	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
6	DORFMAN Mitchell (Mitch) J.	1%	10%	30%	37%	18%	3%
6	HAYENGA Gary M.	-	2%	14%	44%	35%	6%
8	GROSS Stephen R.	-	-	2%	14%	38%	36%	10%
9	DEW Eric	-	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
10	KAROLAK Dale W.	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
11	WILBERT Matt	-	5%	35%	53%	6%	-
12	DOURAGHY Jamie M.	-	-	-	6%	55%	38%
13	ESTELL Oscar M.	-	1%	10%	38%	41%	9%
14	DELL George H.	-	2%	19%	41%	28%	8%	1%
15	DIAZ Julio P.	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
16	ZEISS Gary M.	16%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
17	WHARTON David	2%	17%	41%	30%	9%	1%
18	VOYIAZIAKIS Emanuel	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	12%
19	DENMAN Matthew L.	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	1%
20	PRECCIOZZI Aldo F.	-	9%	40%	37%	13%	2%	-
21	HAGOPIAN Mitchell	15%	55%	27%	3%	-	-
22	PROCOPIO Gregory M.	21%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-
23	LESNIAK Chuck	12%	41%	37%	9%	1%	-
24	KRAUSS John W.	9%	38%	40%	11%	1%	-
25	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	2%	22%	53%	23%	1%	-
26	RYAN Sean	45%	42%	12%	1%	-	-
27	YOO Terry S.	50%	40%	10%	1%	-	-
28	JENKINS Michael	74%	25%	1%	-	-	-	-
29	PRYOR Ted	15%	58%	24%	3%	-	-	-
30	WEMPLE Charles	66%	31%	3%	-	-	-
31	CHENG Stephen S.	15%	46%	30%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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