RYF/RMSA Dollar Challenge

Unrated Mixed Foil

Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Rochester Math & Science Academy (RMSA) - Rochester, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SYMMANK Callen - - 1% 13% 45% 41%
2 STELLPFLUG Zachary - 3% 15% 33% 33% 14% 1%
3 FERRARA Asher 2% 12% 31% 36% 17% 2%
3 MOGENSEN Ezra 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2%
5 SUNDSBAK Evan 1% 13% 33% 33% 16% 4% -
6 NEPAL Noukou Asha 24% 43% 26% 6% 1% - -
7 MOHAMED Ahmed - 3% 14% 31% 33% 16% 3%
8 KRUEGER Benjamin - 1% 8% 34% 42% 16%
9 FANG Ethan 17% 45% 30% 8% 1% -
10 BALDERES Gavin 1% 9% 40% 41% 9% -
11 WINTERS Linus 36% 42% 18% 4% - -
12 MINGO Joshua - 1% 11% 30% 36% 19% 4%
13 HICKMAN Noah 1% 11% 32% 38% 16% 1%
13 SERDIUK Anna 6% 28% 40% 22% 4% -
15 PHINGPHA Avarie 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4% -
16 MOHAMED Siham 3% 27% 62% 8% - -
17 YANG Ziwen 1% 13% 33% 35% 16% 3%
18 RODULFO Emanuel - 1% 9% 33% 41% 15%
19 PFISTER Cameron < 1% 2% 10% 26% 34% 22% 6%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.