RYF/RMSA Dollar Challenge

Unrated Mixed Foil

Sunday, August 17, 2025 at 9:00 AM

Rochester Math & Science Academy (RMSA) - Rochester, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 SYMMANK Callen 100% 100% 100% 99% 86% 41%
2 STELLPFLUG Zachary 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 15% 1%
3 FERRARA Asher 100% 98% 87% 55% 19% 2%
3 MOGENSEN Ezra 100% 96% 76% 41% 12% 2%
5 SUNDSBAK Evan 100% 99% 86% 53% 20% 4% -
6 NEPAL Noukou Asha 100% 76% 33% 7% 1% - -
7 MOHAMED Ahmed 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 19% 3%
8 KRUEGER Benjamin 100% 100% 99% 92% 58% 16%
9 FANG Ethan 100% 83% 39% 8% 1% -
10 BALDERES Gavin 100% 99% 91% 51% 10% -
11 WINTERS Linus 100% 64% 22% 4% - -
12 MINGO Joshua 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 23% 4%
13 HICKMAN Noah 100% 99% 88% 55% 17% 1%
13 SERDIUK Anna 100% 94% 67% 26% 4% -
15 PHINGPHA Avarie 100% 98% 87% 58% 24% 5% -
16 MOHAMED Siham 100% 97% 71% 9% - -
17 YANG Ziwen 100% 99% 86% 53% 19% 3%
18 RODULFO Emanuel 100% 100% 99% 90% 57% 15%
19 PFISTER Cameron 100% 100% 98% 88% 62% 28% 6%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.