Neil Lazar Div1/Div2/Veteran ROC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, August 23, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Southern Connecticut State University (James Moore Fieldhouse) - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KAO Castor T. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 86%
2 DESANDO Michael R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 83% 41%
3 CHEN Kyle P. 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 55% 12%
3 TAN Aidan 100% 100% 100% 100% 94% 69% 23%
5 DOELL Ethan 100% 100% 99% 92% 63% 20%
6 TANG Terry 100% 100% 100% 94% 68% 23% 2%
7 COSTELLO Chaissen F. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 62%
8 ZHANG GAVIN J 100% 99% 88% 53% 15% 2% -
9 PARRA Fabian 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 90% 51%
10 TANG Alexander L. 100% 100% 99% 94% 69% 19%
11 CHENG Logan 100% 100% 98% 84% 48% 13% 1%
12 DOBBINS Evan W. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 52%
13 XU Ethan 100% 100% 98% 84% 43% 9%
14 BARTEL Jacob L. 100% 100% 99% 90% 55% 5%
15 BAI Brian 100% 100% 99% 89% 59% 20% 2%
16 ORLOV Dmitriy 100% 96% 73% 31% 5% -
17 LI Bradley 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 46%
18 WANG Rory 100% 100% 99% 92% 61% 14%
19 PARKER Isaiah 100% 96% 73% 31% 4% < 1%
20 KATAYAMA Kevin 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 71%
20 CHEN Ethan 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 52% 15%
22 BELLUOMO David C. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 78% 25%
23 TANG August L. 100% 100% 98% 87% 57% 21% 3%
24 ABRAMKIN Tim 100% 99% 89% 58% 19% 2% -
25 SUSANTO William 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% - -
26 KROLEWSKI Alexander 100% 90% 54% 17% 2% -
27 GATRELL Mitchell E. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 60% 13%
29 SMITH Grant D. 100% 100% 94% 66% 26% 4% -
30 KO Caleb 100% 96% 76% 38% 11% 1% -
31 GORLOVITZKI Amitai 100% 80% 41% 11% 1% - -
32 DEEB Adam 100% 100% 99% 90% 62% 25% 4%
33 YAO Bradley 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 56% 14%
34 LI Aaron 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 63% 12%
35 SHANNON Jack 100% 99% 82% 44% 13% 2% -
36 URIBE GOMEZ Sebastian Javier 100% 100% 100% 94% 69% 25%
37 LIU Aaron 100% 99% 89% 59% 24% 5% -
38 PAN Ethan 100% 99% 87% 53% 14% 1%
39 HUA Aaron 100% 98% 86% 55% 19% 2% -
40 DAVIDSON Elliot 100% 100% 98% 85% 53% 18% 2%
41 ZENG Rick 100% 100% 98% 86% 50% 11% 1%
42 HAN Alexander 100% 99% 81% 43% 12% 1% -
43 VIVEROS Evan 100% 100% 99% 89% 61% 24% 4%
44 CHA James 100% 98% 84% 51% 17% 2% -
45 CHOI Benjamin 100% 94% 65% 23% 3% -
46 GONZALEZ Oliver 100% 94% 67% 28% 4% -
47 TOOMRE Kai 100% 93% 63% 23% 3% -
48 CHO Michael 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 56%
49 STAFFORD Gareth 100% 92% 62% 23% 3% -
50 WANG Brian 100% 100% 94% 66% 27% 5% -
51 PLUMMER Waylon 100% 97% 76% 36% 8% 1% -
52 BAI Austin 100% 99% 90% 61% 24% 5% -
53 MUNDAHL Brandon 100% 100% 80% 35% 8% 1%
54 ZAPPALA Nikolai 100% 97% 79% 39% 9% 1% -
55 WYSZYNSKI Marek B. 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 56%
56 XU Nathan 100% 96% 77% 41% 11% 1% -
57 BERETICH Brian 100% 76% 32% 6% 1% - -
58 FROST Chayse 100% 75% 33% 7% 1% - -
59 TANG Royce 100% 99% 61% 17% 2% -
60 LEE Charles T 100% 90% 57% 19% 3% -
61 THOMAS Liam 100% 81% 41% 10% 1% -
62 LEE Thomas 100% 55% 14% 2% - -
63 HOLMES Alexiy 100% 81% 40% 10% 1% - -
64 XU Ryan 100% 77% 31% 6% - - -
65 BERNARD Jonathan 100% 20% 2% - - - -
66 FERENCZ Alexander J. 100% 89% 42% 10% 1% - -
67 REN Ryan 100% 69% 24% 4% - - -
68 AYYAGARI Abhiram 100% 53% 13% 2% - - -
69 MURPHY Damian J. 100% 91% 53% 17% 3% - -
70 SHAMBARGER Graham 100% 35% 4% - - - -
70 HOWARD Mekai 100% 3% - - - -
73 EZEKIEL Nathan 100% 64% 20% 3% - -
74 LIGH Thomas 100% 99% 86% 50% 15% 2% -
74 ULYSSE Jacob 100% 77% 33% 7% 1% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.