Portland RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, August 24, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HAMZA Tudor	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
2	DU SHUNYU K.	-	1%	7%	28%	42%	22%
3	LU Jacob	-	-	7%	35%	42%	15%
3	LEWIS Michael	-	4%	21%	40%	29%	5%
5	WU Alistair	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
6	LEE Jake (JiYuen)	2%	20%	38%	29%	10%	1%
7	WEGENER Soren	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
8	GOWDA Suyog	-	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	-
9	MATHES Caleb	-	-	3%	24%	47%	26%
10	LI Timothy	-	4%	21%	40%	28%	6%
11	DONDISCH ilan	-	-	4%	28%	46%	22%
12	BREILING Niklas	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
13	HSU Joshua	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	10%
14	WANG aaron	-	5%	24%	38%	26%	6%	-
15	BACON Corban	29%	50%	19%	2%	-	-
16	BREILING Sebastian	15%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-
17	ST CLAIR Soren	1%	16%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-
18	KIM Remington	1%	14%	36%	35%	13%	1%
19	LEE Daniel	3%	23%	40%	27%	7%	1%
20	OLSON Kevin	-	1%	6%	22%	39%	29%	4%
21	TOYOFUKU Ethan	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
22	MYRAH Devin	31%	47%	19%	3%	-	-
23	MARTIN zachary	8%	32%	39%	18%	3%	-
24	LIGHT Luke	2%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
25	DESMOND-CIESLOWSKI Oscar	40%	47%	13%	1%	-	-
26	WANG Juehan	26%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
27	MARTIN Lucas	2%	20%	39%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	CHAN Joseph	76%	22%	2%	-	-	-	-
29	MONTGOMERY Elliot	4%	27%	50%	17%	2%	-
30	CASONI Calder	60%	33%	7%	1%	-	-
31	AYERS Landyn	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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