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Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, October 12, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Brockport, NY - Brockport, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	-	-	2%	17%	49%	32%
2	TSIMIKLIS Yanni	-	-	3%	20%	46%	30%
3	ALIMI Yacine A.	-	-	4%	22%	46%	27%
3	ORVANANOS Jorge	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
5	SYOMICHEV Gleb A.	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	36%
6	TANG Luke	-	-	3%	13%	32%	36%	16%
7	LI Chenglang Ryan	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
8	TALLARICO Matthew	-	4%	23%	42%	26%	5%
9	PARK Jason B.	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	2%
10	DING Tom Zitong	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
11	PELT Ethan T.	13%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
12	MILLER Aidan A.	-	3%	23%	43%	26%	5%
13	ORR Spencer	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
13	DEGROOT Blake	-	3%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
15	TAN Connor	-	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%
16	RYNSKI Gerik	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
17	DECORLETO III Andrew (Tripp) J.	1%	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
18	LIGOS Alex M.	4%	23%	42%	25%	6%	-
19	DAVIDSON Elliot	1%	17%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
20	ZHONG Guoren	-	6%	25%	37%	25%	7%	-
21	CHEN Derek	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
22	ZHANG Huaxu	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%
23	LU Xiao	23%	45%	26%	6%	-	-
24	WANG Julang	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
25	YOU Alex	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
26	ZHOU Jimmy	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
27	VENKATESH Aditya	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%	-
28	MCQUIDE elliot	-	11%	39%	35%	12%	2%	-
29	ADLER Brandon	4%	29%	39%	21%	6%	1%	-
30	XU Feng	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-	-
31	BANG Ian	86%	13%	1%	-	-	-	-
32	JIA Jing Yu	38%	48%	13%	1%	-	-
33	HOLCOMB Cedric	21%	44%	29%	6%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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