SITS Grand Reopening 3 Weapon Tournament

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, September 13, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Sword in the Scroll Fencing Academy - Willimantic, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 CHENG Brandon 100% 100% 98% 84% 53% 19% 3%
2 KRUMHOLZ Michael A. 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 27%
3 FERRIS Jonathan K. 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 66% 32% 7%
3 LIU Alex 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 65% 24%
5 SONG Aidan 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 16% 2% < 1%
6 BELLIVEAU Raven C. 100% 95% 72% 35% 9% 1% -
7 KOCKELMAN Zeno 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 21% 4% -
8 MORRISSEY joseph 100% 99% 92% 70% 37% 11% 1%
9 SENERTH Ian J. 100% 100% 98% 86% 59% 24% 4%
10 FRY Nicholas (Nico) J. 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 23% 3%
11 BURNHAM Elizabeth (Liz) A. 100% 74% 33% 8% 1% - -
12 BENIS Alexander 100% 87% 49% 16% 3% - - -
13 O'KEEFE Brian 100% 99% 87% 50% 15% 2% -
14 PODDAR Shameek 100% 99% 91% 64% 30% 8% 1% -
15 CLEMENTS Marcus 100% 63% 21% 4% - - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.