The Durkan Rooster RYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Factory 220 - Passaic, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	REN Katherine	-	-	2%	10%	32%	40%	16%
2	BAIK Sarah	-	-	1%	7%	25%	41%	26%
3	HUANG Pierra	-	1%	5%	19%	34%	30%	10%
3	MAK Kaitlin	-	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
5	MAK Jayden	-	1%	7%	26%	40%	24%	3%
6	WANG JiaQi	-	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
7	WONG Charlene	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
8	VATS Ishita	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
9	CHOWDHERY Myra	-	-	1%	8%	30%	43%	19%
10	GUGALA Hanna	-	-	-	1%	7%	33%	59%
11	KWON Ava	-	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	12%
12	ILAGAN Ava	-	2%	12%	33%	37%	15%	2%
13	XU Elaine	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
14	CAFAGNA Sofia	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
15	LEE Kaitlin	-	1%	11%	31%	38%	17%	2%
16	LIU Chelsea	-	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
17	ZHANG Audrey	1%	11%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
18	PARK Haylie	-	1%	5%	22%	37%	27%	7%
19	BORGUETA Madison	-	2%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
20	ZHENG Winona	-	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
21	LEE Grace	-	-	6%	23%	40%	25%	5%
22	GOEL Lineysha	-	3%	14%	30%	32%	17%	3%
23	KIM Eunjae	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
24	MISHRA Riona	1%	13%	36%	35%	13%	2%	-
25	CANARAN Daphne M.	8%	30%	37%	19%	5%	1%	-
26	VINBOR COSTA SANTOS Sasha	4%	25%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
27	PARK Gabriella	1%	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
28	TASSONE Charlie	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
29	JOHN Sophia	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
30	SMITH Genevieve	8%	38%	38%	14%	2%	-	-
31	CONVERSO-PARSONS Maia	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
32	AN Jamie	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
33	RIFKIN Lielle	1%	8%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
34	SHI Chuqing	3%	21%	40%	27%	8%	1%	-
35	PATEL Sia	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-	-
36	JAJRA Avni	2%	26%	42%	24%	6%	-	-
36	CHO Hayoon	3%	16%	32%	30%	15%	4%	-
38	LEON Malolae	10%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
39	BUCCINO Sloane	36%	42%	18%	3%	-	-	-
39	MUKHERJEE Simone	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
41	UPBIN Olivia	80%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-
42	CHURCH Madeline	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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