10th Annual Orange and Blue

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 11:30 AM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MCGUIRE Christian	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
2	HAYES David	-	-	10%	44%	37%	8%	-
3	BECKER William L.	-	-	-	-	-	3%	97%
3	YADAV Lakshya	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	21%
5	IRWIN Peter	-	-	6%	30%	45%	19%
6	GLEASON Sean	-	-	1%	13%	45%	40%	1%
7	DUPREE Thomas	-	-	-	6%	33%	60%
8	YADAV Tishya	1%	9%	28%	38%	21%	3%
9	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	-	1%	7%	34%	45%	14%
10	TOSCANO Sebastian	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	1%
11	MOTTLAU Maddox	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
12	KAMAL Aidan	1%	7%	29%	42%	19%	2%
13	CURTIS Kevin	31%	44%	20%	4%	-	-
14	SHERIDAN Filip	18%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
15	SHERSTNOVA Nadiia	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
16	FREEDMAN Alexander	3%	22%	45%	25%	5%	-
17	DE SOUZA CABRERO Yorrick	-	2%	14%	38%	38%	8%
18	MARTIN Zak	16%	44%	31%	8%	1%	-
19	WOLF Gabriel	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
20	ARESERY Daniel	-	-	44%	42%	12%	1%	-
21	BOUNDS Andrew	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%	1%
22	MOSHER Kai	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
23	MILLER SACKMAN Anita	45%	48%	7%	-	-	-	-
24	FERBER Kenneth	10%	31%	37%	19%	3%	-
25	TORO Diego	3%	21%	41%	28%	7%	-
26	FREEMAN Rian	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%	-
27	YADAV Ajay	37%	43%	17%	3%	-	-
28	KHIA Gabriel	-	4%	19%	40%	32%	5%	-
29	RIVERA-HERNÁNDEZ Javier	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
30	PELLETIER Skylar	31%	50%	19%	-	-	-	-
31	ESPAILLAT Kayla	6%	32%	44%	17%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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