10th Annual Orange and Blue

Div II Mixed Saber

Saturday, September 20, 2025 at 3:30 PM

Southwest Recreation Center - Gainesville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MCGUIRE Christian	-	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
2	YADAV Lakshya	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
3	DUPREE Thomas	-	-	-	2%	14%	48%	36%
3	YADAV Tishya	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
5	BALLOU Johnathan	-	-	-	-	6%	34%	60%
5	TOSCANO Sebastian	-	-	7%	30%	43%	18%	1%
7	IRWIN Peter	-	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
8	KAMAL Aidan	-	4%	19%	35%	31%	10%	1%
9	BOUNDS Andrew	-	1%	14%	37%	34%	12%	1%
10	ARRANT Mason	-	-	7%	29%	41%	20%	3%
11	MOTTLAU Maddox	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	6%	-
12	SHERSTNOVA Nadiia	1%	14%	40%	37%	7%	-	-
13	MOSHER Kai	2%	15%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
14	SHERIDAN Filip	1%	14%	37%	35%	12%	1%	-
15	FREEDMAN Alexander	-	2%	11%	33%	39%	14%	1%
16	YADAV Ajay	3%	29%	42%	22%	4%	-	-
17	DE SOUZA CABRERO Yorrick	-	-	1%	9%	33%	45%	12%
18	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	-	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	17%
19	FREEMAN Rian	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
20	WOLF Gabriel	-	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
21	ARESERY Daniel	-	-	2%	26%	51%	20%	1%
22	RIVERA-HERNÁNDEZ Javier	2%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
23	MARTIN Zak	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
24	TORO Diego	2%	13%	33%	35%	15%	2%	-
25	BLESSING Katherine	-	8%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-
26	MILLER SACKMAN Anita	57%	37%	6%	-	-	-	-
27	MALAJ Kristela	22%	58%	17%	2%	-	-	-
28	PELLETIER Skylar	45%	43%	11%	1%	-	-	-
29	KHIA Gabriel	4%	23%	39%	26%	7%	1%	-
30	ESMER Ekin	-	9%	49%	39%	4%	-	-
31	FERBER Kenneth	< 1%	8%	39%	37%	14%	2%	-
32	ESPAILLAT Kayla	28%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-	-
33	MILLER Echo	-	6%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-
34	VYCE Jacqueline	47%	43%	9%	1%	-	-	-
35	KHAN AALIYAH	16%	42%	32%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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