BladeRunner ROC/RJC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, September 21, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Liontree Arena (RIMAC) @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Samantha	-	-	1%	7%	30%	44%	20%
2	VILLARAMA Kara	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	2%
3	MANIKTALA Prisha	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
3	KIM Sydney	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
5	AYUPOVA AMELIYA	-	-	-	6%	27%	44%	22%
6	ZHANG Ivy	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	23%
7	POEI Lauren	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
8	WYNN Kylie	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
9	LI Alice	-	2%	12%	31%	39%	16%
10	TAO Ann	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	1%
11	GUAN Adeline	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
12	MIYASHIRO Katelyn	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%
13	DAI Iris Yuyang	-	6%	25%	37%	24%	6%	-
14	LIU Ariana	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
15	WU Chingfei Amber	1%	9%	28%	37%	20%	4%
16	LIM Kensie	10%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
17	SUN Emily	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	55%
18	DUAN Sophie	-	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
19	LIU Ashley	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
20	LEVESQUE Brielle	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
21	LAY Apollonia	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
22	KIM Natalie	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
23	HSIAO Ariya	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
24	ZEE Savannah	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
25	ZONG Melody	5%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
26	YONG Rosalind	-	4%	20%	38%	30%	8%
27	RUI Jessie	20%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-
28	GUO Audrey	1%	13%	35%	36%	13%	2%	-
29	JIN Jada Y	7%	33%	40%	17%	3%	-	-
30	FANG Kelervia	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
31	HAN Gian	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
32	ZHANG Viviana	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
33	PEDERSEN Haley	-	2%	15%	35%	33%	13%	1%
34	LUCAS Ava	17%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-	-
35	CHANG Janelle	5%	27%	41%	22%	4%	-	-
36	TU Averie	43%	42%	13%	2%	-	-	-
37	MONAT Jennifer	23%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-
38	BUI Aubrie	46%	40%	12%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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