WFencing Cleveland Rocks RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, September 27, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Woodling Gymnasium - Cleveland State University - Cleveland, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	OZAWA Taishi	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	LU Alex	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
3	ZHENG Marcus	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
5	FOSTERVOLD Castiel	-	-	2%	14%	38%	41%	4%
6	KAGAN Noah	2%	15%	38%	34%	11%	1%
7	ZHAO Jason	-	2%	18%	72%	9%
8	SYMMANK Callen	-	1%	8%	28%	40%	21%	2%
9	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	11%	89%
10	CHENUTULA Abhinav	-	1%	8%	32%	44%	14%	1%
11	WANG Caleb	-	-	2%	18%	48%	32%
12	LATORRE Leonardo	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
13	DHALIWAL Zorawar Singh	9%	31%	37%	18%	4%	-
14	ZHENG Lerui	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	8%
15	XIE Ethan	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
16	CRONK Trevor	18%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
17	WANG kevin	-	3%	18%	45%	29%	5%
18	MCERLEAN Liam	2%	16%	38%	32%	11%	1%	-
19	KIM Yoonsoo	-	-	-	6%	30%	52%	12%
20	MYERS Dimitrios	18%	57%	21%	3%	< 1%	-	-
21	JIAO Daniel	-	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
22	MYERS Julian	-	-	3%	22%	47%	28%
23	MAYER-STALEY Jace	-	-	2%	15%	40%	39%	4%
24	PAYNE Lynas	-	3%	19%	39%	30%	7%	-
25	CHEN Kyler	-	3%	18%	39%	32%	8%	-
26	KOTCH Brodie	22%	48%	28%	2%	-
27	THEKKEL Jonathan	1%	7%	26%	42%	21%	3%	-
28	MEI Edan	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
29	CAVANAUGH Grey	16%	42%	33%	9%	1%	-
30	WENGER Rowan	-	1%	16%	37%	34%	11%	1%
31	JAGANNATHAN Avi	14%	38%	35%	12%	1%	-	-
32	MCCOOL Henry	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	9%	1%
33	WANG Freyr	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%	-
34	DENG Albert	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
35	MORGAN Jacob	34%	47%	17%	1%	-
36	ALTENHOF Nathaniel	25%	46%	25%	4%	-	-
37	AN Jacob	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-	-
38	MATIYASH Andrew	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-	-
39	LIM Cayden	14%	46%	37%	3%	-
40	DURAI Dheeraj	21%	43%	28%	6%	-	-	-
41	KOSCIK-AQUINO Nicholas	2%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%	-
42	LIN Abraham	9%	40%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
43	WANG Justin	62%	33%	4%	-	-	-	-
44	VALERI Ryan	17%	43%	33%	7%	-	-
45	LEE Max	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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