STONERIDGE Trophy @ Bay Area Fencing Club

Y-12 Mixed Foil

Sunday, September 28, 2025 at 3:30 PM

BAY AREA FENCING CLUB - Pleasanton, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LIU Aiden	-	-	1%	8%	36%	56%
2	ALVAREZ Francisco Janusz	-	-	3%	20%	45%	33%
3	LI Yunze	-	1%	10%	36%	40%	13%
5	ZHU Claire	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	8%
6	SUN Lucas	-	-	1%	13%	53%	33%
7	ZHAN Catherine	-	3%	19%	44%	34%
8	AGARWAL Jagrav	-	3%	16%	40%	38%	3%
9	PAWAR Sanvi	-	1%	5%	22%	43%	29%
10	TANG Clementine	-	-	6%	34%	44%	15%
11	GUO Jianing	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
12	ZALTZMAN Maya	1%	17%	40%	33%	9%
13	JOESUF Thea	-	7%	29%	43%	21%
14	SPICER-YOUAKIM Benjamin	1%	8%	31%	46%	14%	1%
15	DONG YIKUN	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
16	SINGH Reyaansh	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
17	WONG Sebastian	9%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%
18	LIN Zhengxuan	4%	24%	41%	25%	6%	1%
19	GU Alexandra	1%	8%	32%	45%	13%	1%
20	KHANAL Sarah	1%	11%	36%	39%	14%
21	DONG Nancy	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	9%
22	KAUDER Rourke	4%	27%	49%	19%	2%	-
23	BHOOMI Abhiram	2%	18%	41%	31%	7%
24	ZENG Cayden	2%	15%	40%	37%	6%	-
25	LIN Dylan	1%	14%	39%	37%	10%
26	SOUSA Lauren	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	-
27	FAN Vivian	4%	20%	37%	29%	10%	1%
28	SHU Kayla	6%	33%	40%	19%	3%
29	KIM Rylie	2%	24%	42%	27%	6%
30	ZHAI Muyan	13%	43%	35%	8%	1%	-
31	TANG Ming-Hao (Audrey)	7%	30%	40%	20%	3%	-
32	WONG Kingston	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
33	LEE Harry	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-
34	SAXENA Niven	-	1%	53%	40%	6%	-
35	POOREY Sophie	31%	42%	21%	5%	-	-
36	LUO Derren	59%	34%	6%	-	-
37	TUNG Alison	51%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
38	KIM Owen	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
39	CHEN Celina	77%	21%	2%	-	-
40	HSU Jayren	< 1%	2%	16%	39%	35%	8%
41	LOPEZ-HOR Emma Meixian	17%	46%	29%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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