Battle At The Beach ROC/RJCC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Sunday, August 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Prime F. Osborn III Convention Center - Jacksonville, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WONG Caitlin	-	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	10%
2	NGUYEN Audrey	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
3	CREMONA Viola Maria	-	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	7%
3	ECHEVERRY Sofia	-	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
5	WANG Ziqiao (Claire)	-	2%	15%	38%	37%	9%
6	DASILVA Mia	-	2%	11%	33%	36%	16%	2%
7	WU Michelle	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
8	SILVA Hailey	14%	47%	31%	8%	1%	-	-
9	WALTER Anna	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
10	BALAKRISHNAN Trisha	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	34%
11	SKILLMAN Natalie	-	-	3%	17%	36%	34%	10%
12	LOZIER Grace	1%	9%	31%	37%	17%	3%	-
13	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
15	NOLAN Sophia	26%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
16	RAFFERTY Catherine	1%	11%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
17	MEMON Insha	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
18	COLLINS Hannah	-	3%	17%	36%	31%	12%	2%
19	HILBY Olivia	-	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
20	PUIG Daniela	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
21	SHIN Jamie	12%	38%	36%	12%	2%	-	-
22	DUBROVINA Irene	1%	9%	29%	39%	19%	3%
23	HOUSMANS Emma	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-	-
24	PHAM Hailey	24%	45%	25%	6%	-	-
25	MOSCOSO SERRANO Andrea	45%	41%	12%	2%	-	-	-
26	CORONADO María Fernanda	18%	41%	30%	10%	1%	-	-
27	DAVIS Shanna	15%	46%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
28	PASCHEL Christie	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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