USF 13th Annual Oktoberfence

Div I-A Mixed Épée

Saturday, October 4, 2025 at 8:00 AM

USF Recreation and Wellness Center - Tampa, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	IRWIN Peter	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
2	ALVIOR Jacob	-	-	4%	31%	65%
3	KOSSMANN Alexander	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
3	ALVIOR Jonathan Adrian	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%	1%
5	ARCHIBALD Daniel	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	2%
6	GROSSE Michael	-	1%	6%	26%	47%	20%
6	TYSON Charlie	-	2%	12%	34%	39%	14%
8	HERARD Weiman	1%	10%	34%	41%	13%	1%
9	KARPF Jonah	4%	21%	41%	27%	6%	-
10	MITTELSTAEDT Isaiah	4%	26%	46%	21%	2%
11	INTERTHAL William	5%	24%	38%	26%	6%	-
12	PROVATAS Eustratios	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
13	BOLLE Elijah	2%	20%	41%	30%	8%	1%
14	CUEVA Viola	-	6%	29%	41%	20%	3%
15	SUMER Defne Ada	1%	11%	33%	38%	15%	2%
16	FULLERTON Joshua	-	-	1%	11%	43%	45%
17	BATISTA Julian	57%	36%	7%	1%	-
18	SANDERS Charlotte	7%	30%	40%	20%	4%	-
19	FREY Wayne	-	7%	34%	48%	11%
20	BARRETT John	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
21	BEAU DE ROCHARS Josh	13%	34%	34%	15%	3%	-
22	BOROWSKI Olivia	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
23	SOU Barry	3%	17%	36%	33%	11%	1%
24	NONKOOKETKHONG Pakon	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
25	MCFARLAND John	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
26	COLANERI Trevor	11%	47%	33%	8%	1%	-
27	ASLANER Eren	7%	54%	33%	5%	-
28	SOKOLOWSKI Olivia	44%	45%	10%	1%	-	-
30	ARBELAEZ Catalina	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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