Rain City Fall RJCC+Div II ROC

Junior Men's Épée

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 11:00 AM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TOYOFUKU Ethan	-	1%	8%	25%	38%	24%	4%
2	WU Alistair	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
3	HAMZA Tudor	-	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
3	GOWDA Suyog	-	1%	10%	30%	39%	19%	1%
5	DAN Rex	-	-	6%	30%	49%	15%
6	LEE Daniel	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%	-
7	PALACIOS Francisco	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
8	WEGENER Soren	-	2%	15%	37%	36%	10%
10	BREILING Nikki	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
11	OLSON Kevin	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
12	LU Jacob	-	-	-	7%	37%	56%
13	LEWIS Michael	2%	17%	37%	32%	11%	1%
14	BREILING Sebastian	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
15	LI Timothy	-	2%	13%	32%	34%	15%	2%
16	MATHES Caleb	-	-	2%	13%	41%	44%
17	BACON Corban	32%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
18	MEHROTRA Dhruv	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-
19	CHAKRABORTY Zorian	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
20	ST CLAIR Soren	-	5%	26%	45%	21%	2%
21	DONDISCH Ilan	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
22	WAI Andreas	2%	14%	34%	34%	15%	2%
23	WANG Aaron	-	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
24	MONTGOMERY Elliot	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	6%	-
25	CASONI Calder	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
26	CHEN Christopher	10%	39%	38%	12%	1%	-
27	HARRISKING Benjamin	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
28	WANG Juehan	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
29	CHAN Joseph	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
30	SRINIVASAN Sanat Ram	13%	42%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
31	CALKINS Logan	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-	-
32	GE Ray	15%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
33	CLIFTON Ian	8%	35%	41%	15%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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