Duel of the East Coast ROC/RJCC/RYC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Greater Philadelphia Expo Center - Hall C - Oaks, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YAN William	-	-	-	1%	6%	32%	61%
2	PORTER Dupree	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	NOTOPRADONO Nicholas	-	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
3	JIANG Terence	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
5	VEDRE Neil	-	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
6	JI Johnson	-	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	18%
7	DAI Zihou	-	2%	10%	27%	36%	21%	5%
8	ZHANG Ray	-	2%	11%	32%	36%	16%	2%
9	FENG Brendan	-	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
10	ZWAKA Jonas	-	-	4%	15%	33%	35%	13%
11	WITCZAK Mateus	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
12	MCDONALD Finn	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	16%
13	WASCO Andrew	-	3%	15%	34%	33%	13%	1%
14	CHEN Jonathan	-	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
14	BAI Evan	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
16	MERMEGAS Alexander	-	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
17	CLARK Aram	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
18	LIU Ryan	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%
19	BARENBOYM Michael	-	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	2%
20	GUYDOUK Alexey	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
21	NAJI Ethan	1%	5%	18%	33%	29%	12%	2%
22	ZHANG Richard	7%	37%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
23	WU Vincent	8%	29%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
24	YANG Byron	8%	26%	35%	22%	7%	1%	-
25	TITOV Zachary	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
26	ZHANG Simon	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	2%	-
27	LIEU Nicholas	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
28	LIEBOWITZ Carson	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%	-
29	CHANG Timothy	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
29	VISH Manyu	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
31	LAU Kyrus	-	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
32	WEISS Toby	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
33	ABELL Marc	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-	-
34	FREILICH Harrison	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
35	DEMERS Bodhi	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
36	JARAMILLO Juan	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
37	KANG Jayden	27%	44%	24%	5%	-	-	-
38	COBITZ Harrison	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
39	SONG Ryan	14%	34%	33%	15%	4%	-	-
40	HOWARTH Hayes	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
40	JIN Yubo	11%	36%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
42	KULKARNI Ishir	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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