Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge

Div II Men's Épée

Sunday, April 28, 2019 at 3:45 PM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PEITZSCH Ian R.	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
2	TORDO Garrett	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	30%
3	MORSE Tyler	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
3	TUCKER Owen J.	2%	11%	27%	33%	20%	6%	1%
5	DOLMETSCH Max	-	7%	25%	37%	24%	6%
6	ARMSTRONG Christopher S.	-	-	-	4%	21%	45%	29%
7	PAK Charles	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	14%
8	CHOUDHARY Grisham	1%	5%	19%	33%	30%	12%	1%
9	FENWICK Luke A.	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	5%
10	DOUGLAS Colin F.	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	16%
11	PAK Sean	-	2%	11%	27%	35%	21%	4%
12	TODREAS Simon	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
13	WANG Eric S	-	3%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
14	NIXON Christian A.	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
15	ALFAIATE Lucas	1%	15%	35%	32%	14%	2%
16	LI Brian	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%
17	PAVATE Rishi	2%	13%	31%	34%	17%	3%	-
18	SINGH RANA Shamtej	11%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
19	LAI Coby	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	2%	-
20	MAROOTIAN Alex S.	-	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
21	WISNIEWSKI Bart	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
22	CHEN Austin	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	2%	-
23	CRAMER Joseph	-	5%	19%	33%	29%	11%	2%
24	TATE Leon J.	10%	34%	36%	17%	3%	-	-
25	O'BRIEN Timothy S.	6%	22%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
26	INTRIAGO Erick	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
27	HU Matthew	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%
28	PAHLAVI Kamran	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
29	STALL-RYAN Jonathan	1%	11%	29%	34%	19%	5%	-
30	BEETS cody	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
31	LEWIS William J.	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-
32	GILLIS George	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
33	MCCARTHY James	26%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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