13th Annual Little Musketeers RYC & RJC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	HSIEH Lucia	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
2	MARTINEZ Maria	-	-	2%	15%	55%	28%
3	HAN Emma	-	2%	14%	42%	43%
3	LIQUARD Lea	3%	22%	43%	28%	4%	-
5	NING Lynn	-	-	5%	22%	45%	29%
6	CHANG Kaitlyn	-	2%	14%	35%	37%	12%
7	KIM Hyunseo	-	-	5%	24%	44%	26%
8	JUNG Sienna	2%	16%	37%	33%	12%	1%
9	BORDAS HILL Georgiana	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
10	CHEN Elaine	-	-	-	5%	40%	55%
11	HENRY Erin	4%	25%	40%	25%	6%	1%
12	ZHANG angelina	1%	23%	44%	27%	5%
13	DIMAPILIS JHEAVEN	1%	29%	48%	20%	2%
14	LEE Madeleine	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
15	VILLAMATER Mia Franchesca	7%	30%	41%	19%	2%	-
16	LIM Eunice	1%	13%	34%	36%	14%	2%
17	LIU Hannah	-	1%	7%	26%	44%	23%
18	VIGNEUX Nolwenn	13%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
19	NGUYEN Summer	-	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
20	BAIRD Kaleah	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
21	BHAVSAR Vanmayi	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
22	LIN Ariel	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
23	OH Chloe	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-
24	SONG Phoebe	16%	44%	31%	9%	1%	-
25	SCHOTT Marine	76%	23%	2%	-	-
27	DING Jolie	1%	12%	35%	36%	14%	2%
28	SCHAMBERGER Amelia	7%	32%	41%	18%	2%	-
29	CHEN Colette	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
30	ENNIS Charlotte	19%	39%	30%	10%	1%	-
31	FANG Lauren	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-
32	PANCHAL Arya	7%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
33	WELCH Greta	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
34	LI Jessie	42%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
35	OLESKY Ellie	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%
36	SOLANTO Ilaria	1%	11%	40%	40%	7%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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