EBFG Open Senior Mix Epee, Vet Mix Epee

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, October 12, 2025 at 2:00 PM

East Bay Fencers Gym - Oakland, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TEPEDELENLIOGLU Mehmet	-	-	-	-	2%	29%	69%
2	PIVOVAROV Lucas	-	3%	20%	42%	30%	4%
3	YAO Tristan	13%	43%	33%	9%	1%	-
4	ROCK Matt W.	-	-	-	6%	33%	60%
5	GUO Woody	-	-	2%	18%	49%	29%	1%
6	YOUNG Quentin	-	4%	18%	37%	32%	8%	-
7	WANG Devin	-	1%	7%	29%	50%	13%	-
8	WONG Preston	1%	11%	39%	36%	12%	1%
9	YAMASAKI Kyle A.	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	70%
10	YU Austin	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	21%
11	HELGE James R.	-	1%	8%	31%	43%	17%
12	AMELI Sean	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
13	CHEN Steve	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	20%
14	ONG Jee Ken	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	27%	4%
15	MAYCHROWITZ Matt	-	-	3%	20%	45%	32%
16	NGUYEN Peyton	1%	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%
17	LOUIE Joseph	-	-	2%	16%	43%	36%	2%
18	AIRES Julia	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
19	DENEALE Lucia	11%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
20	LI Sean	4%	24%	42%	25%	4%	-	-
21	LONDON George	-	3%	21%	42%	28%	6%
22	BECK Brian C.	-	9%	33%	40%	16%	2%
23	YU Brandon	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
24	DIESSNER Henry	46%	44%	10%	1%	-	-
25	DWIGGINS Reese	6%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
26	MARKOFF Gabriel	1%	8%	33%	41%	16%	2%	-
27	MENG Fina	8%	28%	36%	22%	6%	1%	-
28	CHIEM Karen	1%	12%	43%	34%	9%	1%	-
29	TEJADA-ANDERSON Emmanuel	4%	23%	44%	28%	1%	-	-
30	KOUTSOUKOS James	2%	19%	42%	29%	7%	-
31	LIU Max	25%	51%	21%	3%	-	-
32	MARTINEZ Joshua	-	4%	20%	42%	30%	5%
33	SIU Phoeland (Momo) M.	5%	23%	37%	26%	9%	1%
34	KONYK Ethan	-	1%	8%	29%	40%	19%	3%
35	SIVASANKAR Aman	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
36	MORENO Bernardo	5%	27%	40%	23%	4%	-	-
37	YUEN Elsie	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
38	DODGE Myles	64%	32%	4%	-	-	-
39	SILVERMAN Sadie	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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