2025 Szathmary Smackdown II

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, October 18, 2025 at 1:00 PM

TRECS Gym - Knoxville, TN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 SZATHMARY Michael J. 100% 100% 100% 99% 80% 22%
2 STEWART Brian 100% 99% 68% 20% 2%
3 VINCENT Phillip D. 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 45%
3 MOHAMMED Sadiq 100% 100% 99% 85% 26%
5 GUIRGUES Alexander 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 22%
6 SWETT Isaac B. 100% 99% 86% 48% 12%
7 BONILHA-VAN'T HOF Rafael 100% 84% 45% 12% 1%
8 SHAGHAGHI Sahand 100% 80% 39% 10% 1% -
9 SPELL Kayla 100% 100% 96% 77% 42% 10%
9 DIAMOND Gavin 100% 100% 94% 46% 10% 1%
11 SIMPSON Tobias 100% 95% 64% 25% 5% -
12 EVERHARDT William 100% 73% 23% 3% -
13 PALMER Emmanuel 100% 100% 94% 68% 24%
14 MALIN Noah 100% 82% 20% 1% - -
15 SHARPE Kyle 100% 99% 88% 57% 18%
16 CRICHLOW Isabella 100% 94% 70% 32% 8% 1%
17 HELTON Aliha 100% 23% 2% - -
18 BROCK Maya 100% 43% 8% 1% - -
19 MOSES Max 100% 99% 90% 52% 12%
20 MOSES Alexander 100% 100% 93% 62% 10% -
21 WILLIAMS Aidan 100% 99% 90% 62% 23% 2%
22 GONZALES Gueller 100% 98% 69% 20% 1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.