Fall Frolic 2025

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, October 19, 2025 at 1:30 PM

Augusta Fencers Club - Augusta, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 ARZT Nicholas 100% 100% 100% 99% 89% 57% 17%
2 BENDER Rhys T. 100% 100% 100% 98% 82% 40%
3 KRIEGER Jack 100% 100% 99% 93% 67% 25%
3 SLATTERY Kaden 100% 100% 95% 70% 30% 5%
5 FONG Henry 100% 100% 99% 91% 59% 20% 2%
6 VILLANI Henry M. 100% 100% 98% 80% 39% 7%
7 MANN Justin 100% 100% 96% 74% 33% 6%
8 PIERCE Chandon 100% 100% 92% 61% 21% 3%
9 SHEHORN Connor 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 45% 9%
10 FERRARO Nicholas 100% 99% 90% 61% 24% 4%
11 CHRISTMAN Ethan 100% 100% 97% 81% 44% 10%
12 ZHANG Xinyi 100% 98% 42% 8% 1% - -
13 KING Seth 100% 100% 98% 90% 66% 31% 7%
14 MINOR David E. 100% 94% 62% 22% 4% - -
15 TAURMAN Jr. Patrick J. 100% 100% 57% 17% 2% -
16 GEISSLER Maximilian 100% 86% 35% 7% 1% -
17 SANTALESA Richard 100% 39% 5% - - -
18 THORNBURG Rosa 100% 74% 27% 5% - - -
19 SIMPSON Emily 100% 28% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.