Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC - RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, October 19, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Golisano Training Center at Nazareth University - Rochester, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHOWDHERY Myra	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	10%
2	NIU Jessica	-	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
3	MEYERSON Michelle	-	-	3%	14%	32%	35%	15%
3	ZHAO Selena	-	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
5	ZONG Eliane	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
6	ZHANG Ashley	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
7	REN Katherine	-	-	3%	13%	32%	37%	16%
8	WANG MONA	1%	10%	26%	34%	21%	6%	1%
9	HEATH Isabella	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	12%
10	HU Alicia	1%	8%	27%	36%	22%	5%
11	NEDOPAKA Kateryna	-	-	4%	17%	34%	33%	12%
12	KIM Audrey	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	8%
13	PARK Haylie	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
14	ZHANG Audrey	4%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%	-
15	WONG Charlene	1%	7%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
16	GOODWIN Julia	32%	49%	17%	2%	-	-
17	STADNIK Emilia	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	14%
18	PEREIRA Izumi	1%	8%	33%	39%	17%	3%
19	RANDALL-COLLINS Shea M.	1%	14%	33%	34%	16%	3%
20	TA-ZHOU Sophia	3%	17%	35%	30%	13%	2%	-
21	LIU Teresa	13%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
22	LIU Chelsea	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
23	XU Elaine	-	-	6%	25%	44%	25%
24	LEE Kaitlin	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%
25	WU Harper	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	1%	-
26	YANG Selina	7%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
27	BARNES Sarah	-	2%	13%	30%	34%	18%	4%
28	RIFKIN Lielle	3%	18%	35%	29%	12%	2%	-
29	NAKATA Gwyneth	56%	35%	9%	1%	-	-
30	CHURCH Madeline	39%	48%	12%	1%	-	-
31	HU Sophia	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
32	TASSONE Charlie	16%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
33	JAJRA Avni	35%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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