Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC - RJCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, October 19, 2025 at 1:00 PM

Golisano Training Center at Nazareth University - Rochester, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHIN Elizabeth	-	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%
2	PUTHOFF Olivia	-	-	3%	15%	41%	42%
3	HUSSIAN Annabelle	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
3	KRAHE Annika	-	-	6%	26%	44%	25%
5	ORRINGER Lottie	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
6	CAO Amelie	-	-	4%	21%	47%	28%
7	WANG DINA C.	-	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
8	CHAN Jolene	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	26%	3%
9	WANG CAROL	-	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
10	KUANG Bella	1%	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
11	LI Savannah	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
12	LIN Katherine	-	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%
13	HUANG Natalie	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
14	PAN Yiran	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
15	CHUNG Stella	4%	34%	40%	19%	4%	-
16	LI Junhan	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
17	LI Joy	-	-	-	4%	21%	43%	31%
18	XING Melly	-	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
19	KOESTERS Florentine	7%	27%	36%	23%	6%	1%	-
20	WANG Annie	-	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
21	WU Maggie Lei	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	3%
22	LEO Jenna	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%
22	HU Sophie	-	1%	9%	33%	41%	17%
24	VACCARO Lillian	12%	38%	37%	12%	2%	-	-
25	ZHU Ella	-	2%	11%	29%	38%	19%	2%
26	YUAN Agnes	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	4%
27	ROBERTS Anastasia	-	3%	19%	38%	31%	8%
28	DONG Katelyn	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-
29	YIN Emily	13%	57%	25%	4%	-	-
30	DONG Iris	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	6%
31	SHUI Zola	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
32	SUN Nicole	6%	29%	39%	21%	5%	-
33	FAN Melody	24%	45%	25%	6%	-	-
34	BO Iris	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
35	HOLLIS Priscillia	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
36	EPSTEIN Naomi	-	6%	34%	40%	17%	3%
37	ZHANG Caroline	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	2%	-
38	WARDMAN Abigail	10%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-	-
39	DHALIWAL Seerat	1%	20%	38%	29%	10%	2%	-
40	SHANG Arianna	2%	13%	37%	36%	11%	1%
41	LU Chloe	13%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
42	LOBO Sophie	74%	25%	2%	-	-	-
43	BALMER Zoe	80%	19%	1%	-	-	-
44	HUDSON Sophie	35%	45%	18%	2%	-	-	-
45	GUSTAFSSON Anna	80%	19%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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