Thrust Fall RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Épée

Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Rockland Community College (Eugene Levy Field House) - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU FREDERICK	1%	9%	28%	39%	20%	2%
2	YIN Xiangheng	1%	15%	41%	35%	8%
3	IVANOV Andrew	1%	5%	21%	36%	29%	9%
3	LU Shawn	-	-	1%	10%	37%	51%
5	SALA John	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	< 1%
6	BEZRODNOV Artemi	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
7	NG Remy	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	6%
8	ADEN Xiyan	34%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-
9	SALIBA Jackson	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
10	LUO Sebastian	1%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
11	SHABASHOV Roman	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
13	CAVALLARO Xavier	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
14	SHABBIR Mohammad Amaan	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
15	LAW Benjamin	8%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-
16	NAYAR Kabir	-	9%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
17	CHEN Samuel	15%	45%	32%	8%	1%
18	MAK Nolan	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
19	LEE Derek	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
20	HONG Evan	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
21	KASHIRSKIY Chris	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
22	ZHANG Mason	-	1%	7%	21%	34%	28%	9%
23	KO Caden	1%	13%	40%	37%	9%
24	TANG David	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
25	SELOT Arjun	-	5%	21%	40%	30%	5%
26	GU Charles	-	1%	12%	41%	46%
27	LAM-DANBACK Zachary	50%	40%	10%	1%	-
28	FLORES Gabriel	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%
29	LEE Zachariah	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
29	ZHU Peter	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
31	AINSWORTH Rhys	6%	23%	35%	25%	10%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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