The University of Michigan Open

Senior Mixed Saber

Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 1:45 PM

Sports Coliseum - Ann Arbor, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 ZHANG Mengyuan 100% 99% 87% 50% 13%
2 WU Benjamin (Ben) 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 35%
3 GUO Brian 100% 88% 50% 14% 2% < 1%
3 WU Stephen 100% 99% 92% 61% 19%
5 WHAPHAM Mark 100% 99% 83% 39% 5%
6 DENG Kenny 100% 99% 67% 23% 3%
7 WELHAM Charlie 100% 100% 94% 69% 25%
8 JONES Troy 100% 99% 93% 71% 34% 7%
9 RICKERT Michael A. 100% 99% 89% 57% 17%
10 OXIE Matthew 100% 93% 60% 19% 2%
11 WANG Zijie 100% 99% 90% 57% 18% 2%
12 SCHLEGELMILCH Tod 100% 98% 85% 52% 17% 2%
13 WALKER Amanda 100% 81% 38% 8% 1%
14 WU Audrey 100% 89% 55% 19% 3%
15 LEE Angela 100% 72% 30% 7% 1% -
16 HIRSCH Lauren 100% 39% 5% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.