Granite State Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, October 26, 2025 at 2:30 PM

Seacoast Fencing Club- Rochester - Rochester, NH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	JONES Tristan Kai	-	-	-	-	17%	83%
2	DJONOUMA Toyohm	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
3	MICKEY Christopher J.	-	13%	38%	37%	11%	-
3	WANG-SONG Evan	-	4%	35%	43%	16%	2%
5	SONG Angela	-	3%	19%	46%	33%
6	CALDWELL Phoebe	-	2%	11%	32%	40%	15%
7	MOSKOWITZ Martin	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
8	LEE Harrison	19%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
9	WENGER Caleb	-	5%	27%	46%	22%
10	LIU Jeremiah W.	-	1%	10%	34%	40%	15%
11	BANNEN Nicholas	-	3%	18%	39%	33%	6%
12	REELS Eric J.	2%	20%	49%	27%	2%
13	O'BRIEN Eamon	-	1%	17%	42%	32%	8%
14	REARDON Patrick M.	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
15	DOLLARHITE Tommy	1%	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%
16	MARCOUX Alexander	-	6%	24%	41%	25%	4%
17	OSHIMA Robert	1%	13%	38%	37%	11%	-
18	ZHANG Eric I.	5%	28%	45%	19%	3%	-
19	NIXON-PERONI Micah	7%	29%	37%	21%	6%	1%
20	ERIKSEN Casey	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
21	HAN Nathan	39%	44%	14%	2%	-
22	MELCHER Charles	-	5%	24%	44%	28%	-
23	HANNA Alexander	8%	34%	38%	17%	2%	-
24	BEAULIEU Edmund	9%	74%	16%	1%	-	-
25	DUSINLLEUX Kate D.	20%	46%	28%	6%	-
26	COLLIER Samara	41%	42%	14%	2%	-	-
27	WHEELER Michele L.	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
27	MA Yanlei	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
29	POPE MCCRIGHT Emma	75%	23%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.