2026 BFC Youth Series 2

Unrated Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, November 1, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ZHANG Eric	-	4%	28%	60%	8%
2	DENG Jonathan	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
3	XIA Wenhao	-	6%	22%	38%	27%	6%
3	FANG Ryan	13%	44%	33%	8%	1%
5	CHEN Keegan	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
6	ZHENG Vincent	1%	10%	41%	44%	4%
7	HAN Jiaren	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
8	HU Hudson	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%
9	DAVE Neil	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
10	ZHANG Andrew	23%	46%	25%	5%	-
11	XIONG Jeffrey	2%	18%	41%	32%	6%
12	LU Ethan	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
13	XU Jaden	2%	15%	35%	35%	13%
14	OGILVIE Marsden	7%	28%	38%	22%	5%
16	WANG Grant	1%	10%	29%	37%	19%	3%
17	LECH Landon	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	23%
18	GENG Vincent	1%	11%	34%	40%	14%
19	ZARAYSKI Thomas	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%	-
20	WANG Timothy	13%	35%	35%	15%	2%
21	BERLOW Hudson	-	3%	20%	48%	28%
22	BHOSREKAR Som	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
23	PELLERIN Liam	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
24	BANGALE Viraaj	42%	41%	15%	3%	-	-
25	WU Yulen	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
26	CUI Jason	9%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
27	BLAIS julian	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%
28	KAZAKOV Alexander	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
29	LI Ethan	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%
30	MASTAN Patrick	< 1%	8%	34%	43%	15%
31	SCHNEIDER Aiden	46%	41%	12%	1%	-
32	RENSHAW Hunter	18%	40%	30%	10%	2%	-
33	HAO Zerui	< 1%	13%	36%	35%	14%	2%
34	WENG Jingfan	22%	41%	28%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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