FSU's 2nd Annual Fall Faceoff

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Leach Student Recreation Center - Tallahassee, FL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ELLIOTT Wyatt	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
2	JOHNSTON Jacob	-	2%	26%	46%	23%	3%
3	VAN NIMWEGEN Nicholas	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
3	KNOX Aidan	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
5	CARRIE Konnor	-	-	1%	8%	38%	53%
6	MCFARLAND John G.	-	6%	35%	47%	11%	1%
7	OLSON Clayton M.	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
8	SEAMAN C. Scott (Scott)	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
9	MEILAN William	-	1%	7%	36%	44%	13%
10	SHIVELY Cole T.	-	3%	19%	41%	31%	6%
11	LEE Eunjae	-	-	3%	21%	55%	20%
12	WERTH Mario	-	1%	8%	29%	46%	15%	1%
13	HANNER Robert	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
14	PHILLIPS Carson	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%	-
15	HAAS Lindsey	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
16	ACCORNERO Aidan	5%	23%	38%	27%	8%	1%
17	RODDENBERRY Steven	-	1%	11%	37%	41%	11%
18	COATES Gregory	-	4%	24%	45%	26%	2%
19	DEMAREE Matthew	1%	13%	33%	35%	16%	2%
20	SUMMEY Travis	8%	44%	38%	10%	1%	-
21	ABEL Nathanael	-	2%	12%	30%	38%	18%
22	CHAILLOU Jonah	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
23	GIGNILLIAT Ryker	-	-	3%	14%	36%	38%	9%
24	HUNTER James	1%	17%	46%	30%	5%	-
25	FULLER Patrick	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
26	MOTT Tegan	2%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
27	DALY Daniel	-	5%	26%	43%	24%	2%
28	BENJAMIN John	11%	51%	32%	6%	-	-
29	JACOBS Benjamin (Ben) W.	1%	15%	39%	34%	10%	-
30	LE BLANC Anna	19%	53%	25%	3%	-	-
31	SOKOLOWSKI Olivia	62%	32%	6%	-	-	-
32	NOLL Jack	< 1%	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%
33	LIN Sam	6%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
34	HERNDON Rylee	29%	46%	21%	3%	-	-
35	SAYER Laura	63%	31%	5%	-	-	-
36	HURLEY Liam	1%	19%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
37	ROONEY Peyton	5%	27%	41%	23%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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