GRAFA RYC\RJCC\ROC- Third Coast Cup

Cadet Men's Foil

Saturday, November 8, 2025 at 8:00 AM

MSA Fieldhouse - GRAND RAPIDS, MI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SENIC Lucas	-	-	-	-	-	3%	97%
2	RUBY Asher	1%	11%	35%	40%	13%
3	LATORRE Leonardo	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
3	FAN Sean	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%	-
5	TOEWS Jackson	-	-	2%	16%	42%	40%
6	YANG David H.	-	1%	9%	33%	45%	12%
7	ZHAO Jason	4%	24%	42%	25%	5%
8	TEH Tang-Ngu	-	3%	17%	43%	36%
9	LU Alex	-	-	-	7%	35%	58%
10	GE Felix Fei	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
11	DIFRANK Tae	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	5%
12	EDWARDS Connor	-	1%	8%	27%	40%	23%	-
13	COOK Grant	1%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
14	FOSTERVOLD Castiel	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	2%
15	MCMILLIAN Harrison	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
16	PAYNE Lynas	14%	35%	33%	14%	3%	-
17	SYMMANK Callen	1%	10%	33%	37%	16%	2%
18	TAN Charlie	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%
19	KUE Temujin	-	-	2%	11%	38%	49%
20	FERGUSON Levi	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	1%
21	WENGER Liam	12%	39%	36%	12%	1%
22	FEEHAN Conor	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%	-
23	ZMUDA Aiden	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
24	LI Andy	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
25	HERRERA Xavier	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	2%
26	DAVIS Benjamin	-	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%
27	CHASE Crosby	17%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
28	ZHUANG Disheng (Eddie)	-	6%	26%	40%	24%	4%
29	WENGER Rowan	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
30	KOLACKI Gabriel	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
31	GOGOI Kavi	8%	30%	40%	19%	3%	-
32	NI Aaric	12%	42%	34%	11%	1%	-
33	DENG Albert	52%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
34	STELLPFLUG Zachary	2%	32%	42%	20%	4%	-
35	DEBORD Beckett	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
36	POST Bentley	41%	42%	15%	2%	-
37	HASTINGS Alex	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%	-
38	GU Jonathan	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-
39	DEPP Edward	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	-
41	UNTEREKER Billy	23%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
42	VOGEL Rylan	86%	14%	1%	-	-	-
43	SOMERFORD Alex	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.