Mission RJCC

Junior Men's Épée

Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 9:00 AM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHA Russell W.	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
2	ROGAK Benjamin A.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	28%
3	KANG Michael H.	-	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	11%
3	SHENG Patrick Y.	-	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	11%
5	MORSE Tyler	-	-	4%	17%	36%	32%	10%
6	MCDERMOTT Brian	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
7	LAVENSTEIN Kinley V.	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
8	MACKIN Samuel	4%	21%	36%	28%	10%	1%
9	DOLMETSCH Max	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
10	INSLER Gabriel C.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
11	KIM William M.	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
12	LEHR William D.	-	3%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
13	SUICO Zachary Emanuel O.	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
14	FERREIRA Noah J.	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
15	WISNIEWSKI Bart	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-
16	TUCKER Owen J.	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	5%	-
17	SIMPSON Patrick	13%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-
18	SKIFFINGTON Sam	19%	42%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
19	REYES Vincent	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
20	KASTENBERG Leo M.	2%	14%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
21	LONCAR Luka E.	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
22	LI Brian	3%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%	-
23	HU Matthew	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
24	DIXON Thomas	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
25	DIXON Samuel	-	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
26	KARAMANIAN Nicholas	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
27	CONNORS Jacob	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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