Mission RJCC

Cadet Men's Foil

Saturday, September 21, 2019 at 2:45 PM

Rocky Point, NY - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HO Ryan J.	-	-	-	6%	32%	61%
2	MA Alexander	-	-	-	-	4%	36%	60%
3	YEROKHIN Michael N.	-	-	2%	19%	46%	33%
3	DING Jonathan	-	-	-	6%	38%	56%
5	HOOSHI Dylan M.	-	-	-	6%	38%	56%
6	ZELTSER Lawrence M.	-	-	6%	30%	45%	19%
7	GALLUCCI Charles John	-	1%	12%	40%	36%	10%
8	YULDASHEV Timur	3%	17%	35%	32%	12%	1%	-
9	LE Vyn A.	-	5%	25%	48%	20%	2%
10	BAE Kevin	-	3%	19%	39%	31%	8%
11	SHIKHMAN Robert	1%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
12	FU Samuel Y.	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	17%
12	HOOSHI Jayden C.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
14	COSTELLO Chaissen F.	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
15	BOOTSMA Shane-Anson	-	4%	25%	50%	19%	2%
16	BREIER Matthew F.	-	-	4%	25%	52%	19%
17	DEGREMONT Henri S.	-	-	-	4%	24%	52%	19%
18	GALBAN Matthias L.	-	5%	23%	40%	26%	5%	-
19	AHN Jun	-	5%	26%	40%	24%	5%
20	CHAN Tyler	-	-	3%	23%	53%	20%
21	BELLUOMO David C.	2%	17%	38%	32%	10%	1%
22	WANG Gerald Y.	4%	44%	38%	12%	2%	-
23	ZHAO Jesse	2%	15%	37%	34%	12%	1%
24	SCHKODA Jeremy	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	2%	-
25	HOWARD Michael	-	4%	19%	40%	32%	6%
26	KAO Castor T.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
26	MONTALBINE Aidan	23%	43%	26%	7%	1%	-
28	WERWA Griffith	4%	26%	40%	24%	5%	-
29	BAO Wenyuan	3%	24%	49%	22%	3%	-
30	YU Dale	16%	45%	32%	7%	-	-
31	BOUSSY Luciano	37%	45%	17%	2%	-	-
32	BROWN Alexander R.	9%	35%	41%	13%	1%	-
33	ZHANG Zixuan "Mark"	37%	48%	14%	1%	-	-
34	VITKAUSKAS Justin G.	3%	25%	48%	20%	3%	-
35	MENG Zhaoyi	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
36	MORGESON Colin	52%	40%	8%	-	-	-
37	DE JAGER Robert	19%	50%	27%	4%	-	-
38	XU Mathu Yang	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-	-
39	KEANNA Peter	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
40	HU Jason	55%	36%	9%	1%	-	-
41	BAUMANN Gunnar	27%	47%	22%	3%	-	-
42	HASSETT Thomas	86%	14%	1%	-	-	-
43	BADLANI Dev	9%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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