GFA Fall Festival Challenge #2

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, November 9, 2025 at 10:00 AM

Guanyi Fencing Academy - Columbia, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TIKHONOV Ilia 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 66%
2 YU Jason 100% 100% 99% 94% 71% 30% 5%
3 CHI Chelsea 100% 100% 98% 87% 59% 24% 4%
3 YANG Gary 100% 100% 100% 98% 91% 66% 26%
5 TIKHONOV Daniel 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 53%
6 YU Jeremy 100% 80% 43% 14% 3% - -
7 CHANEY Charles 100% 100% 95% 80% 49% 18% 3%
8 YANG Alisa 100% 100% 96% 82% 51% 18% 2%
9 WANG Trinity 100% 96% 75% 38% 10% 1%
10 LIU Yueri 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 67% 22%
11 WANG Marcus 100% 100% 100% 96% 80% 43% 8%
12 ZHU Yiming 100% 99% 86% 51% 15% 1%
13 WEI Sherry 100% 98% 86% 53% 18% 2%
14 EVANS Grant 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 81% 34%
15 SWENSON Keane J. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 31%
16 LIN Haley 100% 100% 96% 76% 33% 3%
17 CUMMINGS Owen 100% 100% 99% 90% 46% 5%
18 BAYUS Oliver 100% 92% 60% 21% 3% - -
19 GUO benjamin 100% 94% 69% 32% 7% 1% -
20 HALE Bradley 100% 93% 63% 23% 4% - -
21 BERGMANN Beatrix 100% 85% 47% 13% 1% -
22 MCCABE Kian 100% 96% 72% 29% 6% 1% -
23 LOPATIN Sergei 100% 78% 35% 8% 1% - -
24 MILLER Balthazar 100% 76% 31% 5% - -
25 MOLINA Rommel 100% 93% 64% 23% 2% -
26 CHONG Eden 100% 72% 28% 5% - -
27 DOAN Christopher 100% 99% 89% 58% 20% 3% -
28 KAPLAN Maddox 100% 98% 84% 54% 23% 5% 1%
29 MOAKLER Christopher 100% 95% 73% 38% 12% 2% -
30 CRIPS-SORGER Jesse 100% 99% 86% 53% 19% 3% -
31 FENG Xinmin 100% 63% 20% 3% - - -
32 MEIKLE Andrew W. 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 7% 1%
33 STEVENS Daniel L. 100% 91% 58% 20% 3% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.