Thanksgiving Throwdown

Unrated Women's Épée

Saturday, November 15, 2025 at 12:30 PM

Richmond Fencing Club - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 THOMPSON Grace 100% 99% 89% 55% 14% 1%
2 BERGAN Bailey 100% 93% 65% 26% 4% < 1%
3 KEFFLER Nadia 100% 95% 75% 43% 15% 3% -
3 NANAYAKKARA Sanuthi 100% 99% 88% 59% 24% 5% -
5 KRECK Marie 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 71% 30%
6 LAI Angel 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 7%
7 JOHNSTON Ashlyn 100% 99% 86% 54% 20% 3% -
8 JOHNSTON Kira 100% 89% 58% 24% 6% 1%
9 POOLE Katherine 100% 98% 87% 57% 22% 3%
10 VILLAVICENCIO Fiorella 100% 100% 99% 91% 62% 20%
11 GIGLIO Liliane 100% 99% 89% 61% 25% 5% -
12 NALLY Madison 100% 97% 80% 45% 13% 1%
13 KELLY Evelyn 100% 86% 50% 16% 3% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.