Morris Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Saturday, November 22, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LUO Alexander 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 76%
2 NOOL Aaron 100% 100% 100% 98% 88% 61% 22%
3 CHIANG William 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 84% 44%
3 KOVAC Blake 100% 99% 89% 61% 27% 6% 1%
5 CHEN Aiden 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 75% 34%
6 ZHENG Jasper 100% 100% 97% 86% 59% 26% 5%
7 LIN Aiden 100% 97% 82% 50% 19% 3% -
8 DAI Jason 100% 100% 94% 72% 33% 6%
9 ARMSTRONG Payson 100% 100% 99% 91% 69% 34% 8%
10 GUJJA Rishabh 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 52% 15%
11 CHEN Hayden 100% 100% 98% 89% 64% 29% 6%
12 MILOWSKY Majai 100% 99% 91% 69% 37% 11% 1%
13 JEONG Joseph 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
14 LAI Jayden 100% 100% 94% 71% 32% 6%
15 MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo 100% 100% 99% 93% 69% 27%
16 LI Jayden 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 15%
17 MASKIN Mikhail 100% 100% 99% 92% 66% 23%
18 LAI Jaxon 100% 99% 93% 70% 36% 10% 1%
19 KO Ethan 100% 100% 96% 78% 44% 11%
20 YAO Irvine 100% 99% 92% 69% 35% 10% 1%
21 KIM Brendan 100% 97% 81% 48% 17% 3% -
22 BUTLER Xavier 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 5%
23 LANE Sawyer 100% 100% 96% 81% 49% 17% 2%
24 LIM Shane 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 5% -
25 TANG Jayce 100% 99% 94% 76% 45% 16% 2%
26 VINCENT-GRAVENHISE Malcolm 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 7%
27 FANG Charlie 100% 100% 98% 86% 53% 15%
28 NG Remy 100% 100% 96% 76% 39% 8%
29 HOREMIOTIS Bennett 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 15%
30 BRISTOL COLTON JOASH 100% 100% 96% 80% 49% 17% 2%
31 SPEZAKIS Achilles 100% 90% 58% 21% 4% -
32 FLANAGAN Ronan 100% 98% 85% 53% 21% 4% -
33 JAISING Kian 100% 95% 74% 37% 10% 1%
34 GREGORY Milo 100% 75% 35% 9% 1% - -
35 YIN Xiangheng 100% 98% 85% 50% 16% 2%
36 MILLER Brodrick 100% 98% 85% 56% 25% 6% 1%
37 XU Yunfei(Dorian) 100% 100% 99% 94% 76% 41% 11%
38 YAN Milan 100% 94% 70% 35% 10% 1% -
39 LITVINOVSKY Benjamin 100% 99% 92% 68% 33% 8% -
40 CHEN Regis 100% 99% 94% 74% 42% 14% 2%
41 SALIBA Jackson 100% 95% 74% 39% 12% 1%
42 YOU Emmanuel 100% 98% 84% 53% 19% 3%
43 LU Tori 100% 81% 42% 11% 1% -
44 GAO Kevin 100% 94% 70% 35% 11% 2% -
44 DUDDA Kavin 100% 98% 85% 54% 21% 4% -
44 SHKOP Alexander 100% 58% 18% 3% - - -
47 CARPENTER Taisei 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1% -
48 LIU FREDERICK 100% 100% 95% 77% 43% 13% 1%
48 LU Shawn 100% 100% 99% 94% 75% 40% 10%
50 HWANG Christopher 100% 73% 31% 7% 1% - -
51 LAW Benjamin 100% 89% 52% 17% 3% -
52 HWANG Chase 100% 87% 50% 17% 3% - -
53 CHEUNG Daniel 100% 99% 93% 70% 35% 9% -
54 YU MAXIMILIAN 100% 96% 77% 42% 14% 2% -
55 SCHELTZ Owen 100% 99% 94% 74% 39% 11% 1%
55 HONG Evan 100% 98% 85% 57% 25% 6% 1%
57 GOOD Adam 100% 78% 39% 11% 2% - -
58 CHARNA Luca 100% 93% 69% 35% 11% 2% -
58 YUAN Leonardo 100% 96% 76% 42% 14% 2% -
60 YADAV Aarav 100% 81% 43% 14% 3% - -
61 LUO Sebastian 100% 99% 90% 63% 29% 7% 1%
61 YANG JULIAN 100% 98% 84% 52% 20% 4% -
63 GORE Noah 100% 90% 60% 26% 7% 1% -
64 KWON Ryan 100% 78% 39% 11% 2% -
65 HERIGSTAD Daniel 100% 79% 40% 12% 2% - -
66 ZHU Kingsley 100% 60% 18% 3% - -
67 SON Joshua 100% 86% 50% 16% 2% -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.