Nick Itkin Cup SYC

Y-10 Women's Foil

Friday, December 5, 2025 at 2:00 PM

Palm Springs Convention Center - Palm Springs, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIU Anya	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
2	SAIFEE Sakina	-	-	-	7%	35%	58%
3	ZHANG Selene T.	-	2%	13%	38%	38%	9%
3	WU Gloria	-	-	-	2%	12%	38%	49%
5	LIN Clara	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	34%
6	KIM Rylie	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	25%
7	TUNG Alison	-	4%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
8	SHU Kayla	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
9	CHEN bridgette	-	-	3%	18%	49%	30%
10	HUANG Emma	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
11	PEROJO Angie	-	1%	11%	36%	41%	11%
12	MAHAPATRA Alisha	-	-	2%	13%	46%	39%
13	KO Alyssa	-	1%	5%	19%	36%	30%	8%
14	YOON Adeline	1%	6%	21%	34%	28%	10%	1%
15	FU Angela	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
16	CHANG Yuri	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%	-
17	CHEN Chloe	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	3%
18	LIN Tiffany	1%	11%	36%	38%	13%	1%
19	NAM Jiwon	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	5%
20	KONG Janisa	1%	11%	38%	37%	12%	1%
21	CHENG Jessica	5%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
22	CHOW Ariel	8%	30%	39%	19%	3%	-
23	CHEUNG Arya	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	8%	1%
24	KIM Taerin	-	3%	15%	32%	33%	15%	2%
25	SUN Zoey	4%	30%	43%	20%	3%	-
26	KENZHEBULATOVA Sara	5%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
27	ZEE Bella	9%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
28	KIM Olivia	19%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-
29	LIU Sienna	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	3%	-
30	ZHANG Anthea Jia Jia	8%	29%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
31	DAI Claire	1%	7%	25%	38%	25%	4%
32	SINGH Aditi	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
33	DING Athena	-	6%	28%	42%	21%	2%
34	YI Helen	6%	26%	38%	24%	6%	1%
35	CHEUNG Esabella	2%	20%	40%	29%	8%	-
36	LEE Jordan	12%	35%	36%	15%	2%	-
37	DALESSIO Zara Rose	44%	43%	12%	1%	-	-
38	JOE Everly	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
39	SUN Grace	17%	37%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
40	WYNN Niko	23%	50%	23%	4%	-	-
41	HARUTYUNYAN Alisa	20%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
42	SONG Esther W	33%	42%	20%	4%	-	-
43	QU Iris	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
44	BORG Annie	22%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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