Nittany Lion Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Épée

Saturday, December 20, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Nittany Valley Sports Centre - State College, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LIANG Carina	-	-	3%	20%	46%	31%
2	ZHANG Ashley	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	18%
3	JU Jennifer	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
3	HOWARD Katherine	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%
5	XIE ANDREA	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	18%	4%
6	BOROTKO Katerina	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
7	BROWN Marie	-	-	1%	9%	31%	43%	16%
8	SIU Mila	-	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
9	CHEN Laila	-	4%	24%	43%	24%	4%
10	SHEIKH PAREE	-	2%	11%	32%	39%	16%
10	YARBILOVA Aya	-	-	5%	24%	46%	25%
12	BURROWS Beatrice	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	21%
13	KIM Abigail	-	2%	16%	39%	32%	10%	1%
14	WU Yutong	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
15	YUSHCHENKO Ivanka	3%	20%	43%	27%	6%	-
16	YIN Elaine	1%	8%	28%	38%	21%	4%
17	WANG Katherine	6%	27%	38%	23%	5%	-
18	YU Livia	-	-	2%	12%	31%	37%	17%
19	CHO Josephine	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	2%
20	BOUTSIKARIS Asha	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
21	LAMOREAUX Collette	10%	31%	35%	18%	5%	1%	-
22	LI Rebecca	2%	11%	31%	37%	18%	2%
23	LIU Brinley	1%	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%
24	SAJJA Anwita	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
25	CHI Evelyn	23%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-
26	CHEN Reina	9%	30%	37%	20%	4%	-
27	ZHU YUNXI	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
28	LIANG Kristy	1%	13%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
29	DIETIKER Claire	3%	18%	34%	29%	12%	3%	-
30	CORNFIELD Emily	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
31	ZHANG Anna	26%	47%	23%	4%	-	-
32	ECCLESTONE Tara	13%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-
33	KHANNA Bhairavi	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
34	LOUGH Abbie	55%	38%	6%	-	-	-	-
35	LAU Ivana	14%	36%	33%	14%	2%	-
36	WANG Emily	20%	51%	25%	4%	-	-	-
37	BONTHAPALLY Maitreyee S.	34%	47%	17%	2%	-	-
38	DONE Kennedy	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.