Nittany Lion Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, December 20, 2025 at 4:00 PM

Nittany Valley Sports Centre - State College, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5
1 CIECIEREGA MATTHEW 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 23%
2 HEILMANN Caleb 100% 100% 98% 85% 51% 12%
3 HEILMANN Christian 100% 100% 98% 85% 51% 14%
3 LEE Shane Gunn 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 23%
5 FAZELINIA Erfaan 100% 100% 95% 75% 37% 8%
6 TO Aiden 100% 100% 96% 73% 27%
7 TERENTIEV Michael 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 39%
8 PACIUS Hunter 100% 69% 24% 4% -
9 LI Jayden 100% 95% 68% 28% 5% < 1%
10 THEETHIRA Kevin-Cariappa 100% 87% 49% 13% 1%
11 TERNG Peter 100% 96% 74% 34% 8% 1%
12 HAMM Bennett 100% 100% 95% 74% 35% 7%
13 YU Dylan 100% 100% 95% 77% 40% 9%
14 ROSENBLATT Ezra 100% 96% 72% 33% 7% 1%
15 ZHANG Leon 100% 100% 95% 72% 27%
16 LI Felix 100% 71% 28% 6% 1% -
17 HUANG KIMBALL 100% 91% 58% 21% 4% -
18 DIORIO James 100% 90% 57% 21% 4% -
19 PALERMO Evan 100% 90% 55% 16% 2%
20 WONG Jacob 100% 99% 88% 56% 19% 2%
21 FERNAINE Thomas 100% 95% 72% 34% 9% 1%
22 XU Jayden 100% 53% 14% 2% - -
23 PAN William 100% 58% 16% 2% - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.