Austin Challenge SYC and RCC

Cadet Women's Épée

Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Round Rock Sports Center - Round Rock, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HOLDEN Helena	-	-	-	2%	13%	40%	46%
2	PEI Claire	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	5%
3	FISCHBEIN Quinley	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
3	KANASKAR Ila	-	-	4%	23%	45%	28%
5	BEATIE Isabella M.	-	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
6	MOHAN Riya	-	1%	6%	27%	44%	21%
7	MCQUEEN Morgan	-	-	6%	27%	44%	22%
8	XU Chenyu	1%	8%	27%	38%	21%	4%
9	YOUNG Nicole	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
10	HAUSHEER Kuncen	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
11	ARULKUMAR Lashia	-	3%	19%	42%	29%	6%
12	CHI Zoe	-	-	5%	24%	45%	26%
13	HALE Reagan	-	1%	9%	26%	37%	23%	4%
14	KALGAONKAR Arohi	-	-	7%	40%	53%
15	JIANG Alexandra	2%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
16	YOUN Kylie	-	3%	22%	53%	22%
17	WANG Nicole	-	1%	5%	19%	37%	32%	8%
18	LI Anna	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
19	SUN Joanna	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%	-
20	LI Allison	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
21	HUANG Selina	-	6%	24%	40%	25%	4%
22	FENG Esther	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
23	MARKS Madeline	5%	30%	48%	16%	1%
24	VIOLETTE Lih-Ann	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
25	SHI Elle	4%	24%	43%	24%	5%	-
26	YIP Allison	-	6%	26%	39%	24%	5%
27	LEE Kaitlyn	-	3%	21%	42%	28%	6%
28	ROMANOV Mia	21%	49%	26%	4%	-
29	HALE Avery	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
30	DESAI Eesha	-	3%	16%	33%	33%	13%	2%
31	SHUKLA Annika	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
32	WU Emma	18%	45%	29%	7%	1%	-
33	RAPTIS Layla	12%	47%	33%	8%	1%	-
34	KOSIM Irene	4%	20%	36%	28%	10%	2%	-
35	OLSON Olivia	-	5%	20%	35%	29%	10%	1%
36	RAJ Indra	2%	28%	41%	23%	6%	-
37	LI Jasmine	2%	17%	42%	30%	8%	1%
39	BEAVERS cole	45%	43%	11%	1%	-
40	EDGAR Koko	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%
41	FANG Olivia	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	3%	-
42	ILYAS Lyla	52%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
43	DAI Sophie	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
44	LEONG Andrea	17%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-
45	YOUNG Penelope	33%	44%	19%	4%	-	-
46	TISHKOVA-ROBERTS Daria	4%	22%	37%	27%	10%	1%	-
47	RANDOLPH Bethany	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
48	OZGUN Meryem	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-
49	ZENG Joy	40%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
50	ELLMER Ava	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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