Nittany Lion Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 8:00 AM

Nittany Valley Sports Centre - State College, PA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CAO Amelie	-	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	ZHANG Priscilla	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	3%
3	ZHENG Annalyn	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
3	DONG Katelyn	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
5	HOLLIS Priscillia	1%	20%	43%	30%	6%
6	ZHANG Caroline	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
7	PHAN Logan	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
8	HUANG Gabrielle	-	4%	18%	38%	32%	8%
9	CHUNG Stella	-	-	5%	22%	43%	30%
10	LU Sophia	5%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%
11	EPSTEIN Naomi	-	-	2%	15%	42%	40%
12	LEO Jenna	-	2%	11%	33%	40%	15%
13	LIAW Audrey	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	-
14	DZIWULSKI Elisabeth Claire	1%	6%	23%	36%	27%	8%	-
16	BALMER Zoe	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
17	ENRIQUEZ Bianca Perla	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	18%
18	REILLY Carys	3%	29%	43%	22%	3%
19	HUDSON Sophie	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
20	HOU Xu	1%	11%	30%	35%	18%	4%	-
21	SHANG Arianna	1%	12%	38%	38%	12%
22	XU Charlene	1%	7%	26%	39%	22%	4%
23	JIN Emily	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
24	FAN Melody	4%	20%	37%	28%	9%	1%
25	CLOUD Chrystie	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
26	AKSAKAL Ela	20%	40%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
27	BROWN Katelyn	6%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
27	BENTLEY Amelia	17%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-
29	GONG Maggie	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
30	PIERSIG Eleanor	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
31	CARMEN Charlotte	78%	20%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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