Fairfax Challenge SYC/RJCC

Cadet Women's Saber

Saturday, December 27, 2025 at 11:00 AM

Fredericksburg Convention Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	DAVIDOVA Kira	-	-	-	2%	24%	74%
2	YADAV Tishya	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
3	OH Chloe	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
3	JOSHI Samika	-	3%	19%	40%	32%	7%
5	MCAFEE Jada	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
6	KRIVOSHEEV Alexandra	-	-	2%	14%	43%	41%
7	MAJEWSKA Maria	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	14%
8	CONVERSO-PARSONS Maia	-	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
9	NANDA Maanika	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	17%
10	LEE Kaitlin	-	2%	15%	41%	36%	5%
11	CANARAN Daphne M.	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	2%
12	ZHENG Winona	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	19%
12	HUANG Zoe	-	8%	31%	40%	19%	3%
14	TIAN Ariana	4%	23%	40%	26%	6%	-
15	LIU Teresa	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-
16	VATS Ishita	-	1%	8%	28%	41%	21%
17	PHILLIPPY Hannah	2%	18%	38%	32%	9%	1%
18	LIU Alyssa	5%	27%	42%	22%	4%	-
19	WANG Selina	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
20	ONO Lisa	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
21	TOPALOV Julia	-	6%	26%	43%	22%	2%
22	AN Jamie	9%	34%	38%	17%	3%	-
23	SHOWKIER Amal	45%	41%	13%	2%	-	-
24	SAGER Bianca	19%	44%	30%	7%	1%	-
25	LIAO Audrey	31%	45%	20%	4%	-	-
26	DATLA Aanya	10%	42%	35%	11%	1%	-
27	SIROTA Simone	35%	44%	18%	3%	-	-
28	MCCARTHY Nora Louisa Abrous	2%	16%	38%	33%	10%	1%
29	HILTON Penelope	60%	33%	6%	-	-	-
30	TILAKARATNE Inuli	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.